Leeds United promotion chances laid bare as Opta predicts Championship play-off winners

Leeds United cannot be considered the form side heading into the Championship play-offs. Daniel Farke's side won just one of their last six games in the regular campaign and it was that poor form that ultimately saw them miss out on a place in the automatic promotion spots.

Losses came against Coventry City, Blackburn Rovers, QPR and Southampton, while Ipswich Town and champions Leicester City found the traction required to pull away and secure promotion to the Premier League. Just one spot in next season's top flight line-up remains and Leeds are still more than capable of securing it by progressing through the play-offs.

To do that, though, they will have to shake off their disappointment sharpish and regather themselves. The play-offs can be unforgiving and Farke will be working hard to ensure his side are in the right mental shape to kick on and make the most of the next three games, starting with Sunday's semi-final first leg against Norwich City at Carrow Road.

According to Opta, Leeds are the most likely side to put it together when it counts, too. The stat-based analysis company reckon Leeds have a 58.8 per cent chance of overcoming Norwich over the two legs to reach Wembley Stadium.

They also believe the Whites have a 33.2 per cent of winning the play-offs altogether, which makes them the favourites in a four-horse race. Of course, Opta predictions count for very little in the grand scheme of things, but the stats certainly underline what Leeds are capable of.

Keep up to date with all the latest Leeds United headlines, with the free Yorkshire Evening News - Leeds United newsletter. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given they finished a position below Leeds in the table, Southampton are the second favourites to win promotion, per Opta. The Saints have a 55.5 per cent chance of seeing off West Bromwich Albion over two legs, while their chances of claiming the final spot in the top flight stand at 26.4 per cent.

The Baggies have a 44.5 per cent chance of progression to Wembley, while Norwich, who last won the Championship play-offs in 2014-15, are seen to have a 41.2 per cent chance of beating Leeds and getting to the national stadium. Both sides are at 20.2 per cent to win on May 26 and join Leicester and Ipswich in the Premier League.

Southampton manager Russell Martin captained Norwich to their last play-off success and he may well be hoping that experience gives him something of an edge over the coming weeks. But, as Leeds fans will be telling themselves, given the club's wretched record at this stage of the campaign, history won't have much bearing on what happens between now and the final whistle of the play-off final.