Relegation probability for Leeds United revealed as Jesse Marsch acknowledges his question mark

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The statistical probability of Leeds United suffering relegation stands at 76 per cent going into a monumental final day of the season.

That's according to data and forecast experts FiveThirtyEight.Even if the Whites manage to beat Brentford, a side who have sailed through the last three months thanks in part to the second wind provided by Christian Eriksen’s signing, the Whites will still require a snooker.

Although level on points with 17th-placed Burnley, who face Newcastle United at home, Leeds are essentially a point worse off due to their minus 38 goal difference and would require a 20-goal swing to overcome it, if both relegation-threatened sides either won or lost.

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In reality, matching Burnley’s result will only result in a return to the Championship for Leeds and while Jesse Marsch isn’t thinking about what that might mean, his words on Thursday held a note of acceptance that there will always be question marks over a manager in worst case scenarios.

“Before I came here I asked the questions about what will it look like if it goes in this direction, and what will it look like if it goes in that direction,” he said, of the owners.

“When we talked about coming in, this was about a long-term project. And I’m thankful that the club committed to me in that way.

“Now, you always know as a manager that things get tough, you never know what the future can hold but I believe that the connections we’ve made and the work, style and ideas of what we think this football life is, really meshed well together.

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“The support I’ve had from everyone has been amazing. But again, I’m not thinking about right now in this moment. I’m not thinking about the long-term project. I’m thinking only about Sunday, and doing everything we can to prepare ourselves for that.”

HIGH PROBABILITY - The statistical probability of Leeds United being relegated stands at 76 per cent ahead of Sunday's visit to Brentford on the final day of the season. Pic: GettyHIGH PROBABILITY - The statistical probability of Leeds United being relegated stands at 76 per cent ahead of Sunday's visit to Brentford on the final day of the season. Pic: Getty
HIGH PROBABILITY - The statistical probability of Leeds United being relegated stands at 76 per cent ahead of Sunday's visit to Brentford on the final day of the season. Pic: Getty

There’s a lot to think about, even without allowing your mind to stray towards events at Turf Moor which hold an equal share in the fate of Leeds United.

In preparing his team Marsch has had to be singularly-focused because every game in the top flight demands that, and because Brentford are a team to be taken with the utmost seriousness.

“They’re good against the ball and in pressing moments, but they also have really good movements when they have the ball,” said the American.

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